Why might the GBPUSD breakout lower to 1.1650?

Mark O'Donnellon 14/07/2022|
2 min read

Technical analysis, and in particular the Range identifier Indicator, suggests a possible continuation to  the downside is on the cards for GBPUSD. 

The Range Identifier is a technical tool that highlights price ranges of an asset. Technical analysts will  commonly use this indicator to determine price breakouts. Similar to the Darvas Box indicator, the  Range Identifier automatically populates charts with boxes that highlight the lows and highs of a price  range over a limited period of time.  

The highs and lows inside the Range Indicator boxes can be considered as support and resistance levels,  and thus, can be used to identify price breakouts. The price that breaks and closes above or below those  areas is said to be a breakout. A breakout indicates a potential continuation of the current trend or  possible price reversal. Simple trend indicators, such as moving averages, can help identify the current  market bias in this regard. 

With the help of the Range Identifier in analyzing the GBPUSD daily chart, we can see the price is  currently inside a box range between 1.2030 high and 1.1860 lows. This is quite a tight range as the pair  has barely budged from 1.1880 in the past three trading days.

GBPUSD 1D, with Range Identifier Indicator and 200 EMA 

The pairs distance to the high of the latest box range is considerable, and a breakout to the downside is  possibly looking more likely. This idea is supported by the 200 EMA period as the price hovers below this  moving average line, indicating a strong downtrend.  

If the price breaks out to the downside, we might see the GBPUSD heading towards the 1.1650 weekly  support area.