Two currency trades to consider in January
The first month of the new year is upon us and with it a new batch of trading opportunities. But where are the trading opportunities this month? With no knowledge of what surprises may lurk around the corner, we can turn our attention to the Economic Calendar to see what events will occur and think about what assets might likely be affected by some wild swings in response.
On Friday 13th, we have December inflation data from the world’s largest economy; the US. Inflation in the US has been slowing for the past five months and it is again expected to dip further in the latest reading. But, by how far is the big question. The market consensus is pointing to a fall from 7.1% to 6.5%. US inflation data is about the most interesting economic event for traders of the past few months as traders try to use it to gauge the economic consequences (and the desirability of the US dollar) of it falling too fast or not fast enough. A trade against the British pound might be a good call with the UK’s GDP data also due on the 13th, followed a few days later by its own inflation rate data.
We have both an important BOJ Interest rate decision (18th) and Inflation data (20th) emanating from Japan this month. The reason this is important is because the BOJ recently widened its target for 10-year government yields yet noted that it actually sees inflation falling back from its current 40-year high without it needing to change its ultra-loose monetary policy. Some market participants, including Trading Economics are pointing to Japanese inflation rising still higher, by 10-basis-points, for its December reading. All these seemingly hard-to-amalgamate perspectives means the Japanese dollar might be a good trade this month, against the US dollar, pound, or Australian dollar.