This week could set long-term trend of USD/JPY

Mark O'Donnellon 19/12/2022|
2 min read

The USD/JPY has been one of the most interesting pairs to trade in 2022. The pair has had it all, including hitting record highs and central bank intervention. But the year is not over, and some more market events are primed to possibly inject a little more volatility into the pair.

Tomorrow will be the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision. While markets expect the bank to maintain its negative interest rate, it will be interesting to see if the bank starts to prepare the market for a potential tightening in the future in its post-decision address, now that the annual inflation rate in Japan reached 3.7% in October 2022. On Thursday we get to see how much higher inflation reached in November, with markets expecting a reading of 3.9%.

In the lead up to these two major market events, it is appropriate to look at the technical perspective of the USD/JPY.

The solid uptrend trend in the pair peaked after reaching 152.000 in October, after which the USD/JPY reversed, creating a series of lower lows in the daily chart. Subsequently, it broke below the upward trend channel. The price also retested the trend line at 142.200, a former strong demand zone. 

Looking at the current price action on the daily timeframe, we can see that the USD/JPY is currently in a consolidation period between 138.000, which is the resistance area, and 134.000, which is the support area. Technically, since the short-term bias for the USD/JPY is currently downtrend according to the mini trend channel drawn above, we might expect a possible breakout to the downside once the 134.000 support area has been broken. If it happens, targets include 133.000, 131.000, and 127.000 if fundamentals support the momentum.

However, countering this outlook is the Know Sure Thing or KST, a momentum-based oscillator. The indicator is currently showing a bullish crossover. This crossover might suggest that there is also a possibility that a breakout to the upside might occur. Suppose the price for USD/JPY breaks above the 138.000 resistance area and closes above the mini trend channel. In that case, this might indicate that the downtrend since October might be another pullback, and the long-term bias for USD/JPY is an uptrend.