Reports from Australian 9News and News Corp indicate that US intelligence revealed that Putin has given the order for troops to invade Ukraine. “Intelligence says that Russian troops have actually received orders now to proceed with the invasion” ~ David Martin of CBS news.

Artillery shelling in the Ukraine continues to intensify, with Ukraine military positions being targeted and taking casualties according to journalist Bryce Wilson. Ukrainian forces have been told to hold fire in all but critical situations, as a fear that any response could be the bullet that starts world war three.

What Does War (Or Increased Tension) Mean for global Markets?

In global markets this week I anticipate continued risk-off sentiment. A war, or embargoes placed against Russia will likely see Gold (XAU/USD) appreciate along with oil and other commodities, whilst equities can be expected to depreciate along with risk currencies. Lets look at a few key charts for this week.

XAU/USD (1D Chart)

Gold has now well and truly broken the corrective pennant pattern to the upside, and is now pushing into the 1900 figure. The 50 moving average (red) has now entered a bullish cross with the 100 & 200 moving average, and the 100 MA looks set to bullish cross the 200. With war activities forefront on every news outlet currently we can look to see gold trade well into the 2000’s.

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY, 1D Chart)

The SPY has made considerable losses this year, now trading at 434 (down from the ATH of 479.98). Price has broken the uptrend line, and has found resistance in the fibonacci golden pocket. I’m now looking for the SPY to retest the recent lows at 420, and if a break below happens will be looking for sustained downside to the 385 mark.

EUR/USD (1D Chart)

Our keen readers know that I have been continually bearish on EUR/USD for some time now. I am more bearish than ever, as price has formed a large double top patternn, and has now had a previous resistance hold last week. On the lower time frames price has also broken to the downside of a short term corrective pattern, and I anticipate the sentiment this week will be sell Euro.

NATGAS (1D Chart)

NATGAS has recently rebounded from range support, and I’m looking for continued upside into resistance. Embargoes and war with Russia would likely mean they would cut their gas supplies to the West, decreasing supplies.