17 of 77 (22%) of Sep / Oct / Nov / Dec have closed bearish since December 2001, showing that the period has a strong bullish seasonal tendency. In other words, 78% of months during this period the NZD/JPY has closed up. The following data is from 2001-2020. Coupling this with the news that the RBNZ is likely to hike rates this year we are looking for continued NZDJPY upside.

• In September the average gain is +1.08%, the lowest close was -9.94%, and the highest close was +8.57%.
• In October the average gain is +0.58%, the lowest close was -16.16% and the highest close was +7.90%.
• In November the average gain is +0.18%, the lowest close was -5.71%, and the highest close was +1.75%.
• In December the average gain is +1.50%, the lowest close was -6.75%, and the highest close was +7.02%.

***It should be noted that the lowest closes in this period were in 2008 for Sep,Oct & Nov, with the Global Financial Crisis causing an anomaly move for the forex pair.

 

On the 1 Week NZDJPY chart we can see that price has held above the pivot level at 76.500. This level has acted as a strong support and resistance zone since April 2016.

A closer look at the pair on the 1D chart shows that bearish structure has broken as price has formed a higher high. I am now looking for price to retest the 76.500 level as support, and potentially look for long position entry’s.