IG Markets’ client sentiment on EURUSD has swung bullish (64% bullish), as has XM’s client sentiment  for the EURUSD (69% bullish). Despite the surge in retail long positions, the EURUSD may still have further downside to go.

EURUSD has broken above the 50-200 hour moving averages, which are now in a bullish cross. However, the 500 hour moving average looms above as resistance, correlating with the resistance trendline and the 1.6280 resistance pivot. Bears have already protected this level once in the last day, showing their hand at the level.

Fundamentally, the EURUSD has had another of news events, mostly announcing positive data. The ZEW economic sentiment index, and Industrial Production data all exceeded expectations, giving the EUR a rise. Trade balance data is due to be release today during EU trading session.

As the saying goes, buy the rumour and sell the news – something to be wary of given the retail sentiment turning bullish despite mid-term bearish technical confluences.