Trading GBP in the lead up to UK GDP Data

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Mark O'Donnellon 12/08/2022|
2 min read
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Great Britian’s GDP Growth Rate data for June 2022 is released in a few hours’ time. 

The British economy expanded 0.5% MoM in May, unexpectedly beating forecasts for a neutral month  of growth. May’s reading stood in stark contrast in April’s –0.2%, March’s +0.1%, and February’s 0.0%  readings. 

The market forecast for June has the data returning to negative territory, with expectations in the realm  of –1.0%. 

GBP in the lead up to GDP data 

On the technical side, the GBP/USD pair is currently consolidating close to the key level at around 1.2223  on the 4-hour timeframe. The price is currently bouncing in between 1.2260 and 1.2181. From these  levels, the GBP/USD might be preparing to make an impulse move upwards.  

GBP/USD 4H, with Consolidation Zones Indicator 

There is a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe of the pair which adds confirmation to this possible  move. A Golden Cross is close to appearing with the 20-day moving average moving sharply upwards to  almost intersect the 50-day moving average. 

On the daily timeframe, an upside break will put it in contention to retest previous intra-day highs of  1.2400 and 1.2660.

GBP/USD 1D, with Consolidation Zones Indicator and 20-50-day moving average 

On the other hand, the EUR/GBP pair seems to be making another run towards the upper resistance of  the descending channel. 

It has already visited this upper channel boundary 4 times since June 15, 2022. Perhaps it will visit  0.8503, in confluence with the 50-day moving average before continuing its way south. Although the  Supertrend Indicator may suggest that the pair doesn’t have the sentiment to get close to the upper  boundary. 

EUR/GBP 1D, with 20-50-day moving average